SDSU’s Schedule Is Set. How Many Quad 1 Opportunities Do the Aztecs Have?

With the Pac-12 schedule officially released, San Diego State’s 2026–27 regular-season picture is finally coming into focus. For a program that expects to compete for an NCAA Tournament berth every March, the biggest question isn’t simply who SDSU plays. It’s how many of those games could eventually become meaningful résumé opportunities.

Based on a conservative preseason projection, Sports on the Mesa estimates SDSU’s 29 guaranteed Division I regular-season games could break down approximately like this:

Projected Quad 1: 6 games

Projected Quad 2: 9 games

Projected Quad 3: 10 games

Projected Quad 4: 4 games

That would give the Aztecs 15 projected Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunities — roughly 52% of their guaranteed Division I schedule. But there’s an important disclaimer: none of these quadrant designations are official. The NCAA does not use preseason projections in the NET, and the first NET rankings are not released until the season is underway.

Quadrants are ultimately determined by where an opponent ranks in the NET and where the game is played. For men’s basketball, a game is classified as Quad 1 against teams ranked 1–30 at home, 1–50 at a neutral site and 1–75 on the road. Quad 2 extends to 31–75 at home, 51–100 at a neutral site and 76–135 on the road. Rather than assuming every borderline opponent has a strong season, our projection intentionally errs on the side of caution.

Where SDSU’s projected Quad 1 games could come from

The nonconference schedule provides several of SDSU’s clearest opportunities. Iowa State at Players Era, BYU at Acrisure Arena and UCLA at Pauley Pavilion are among the strongest projected Quad 1 candidates on the schedule. Players Era could provide another depending on SDSU’s path through the bracket.

The Aztecs open against Iowa State before facing either Tennessee or Maryland. Their third game will come from a group that includes Louisville, Oregon, St. John’s and Texas Tech depending on how the bracket unfolds. There is also the possibility of an additional game on November 28 if SDSU reaches the Players Era championship. Because that game is not guaranteed, it is not included in our 29-game projection. A deep run in Las Vegas could therefore significantly change SDSU’s eventual quadrant breakdown.

Then there’s Gonzaga. SDSU hosts the Bulldogs at Viejas Arena on February 6 before traveling to Spokane on February 27. For the Viejas matchup to become Quad 1, Gonzaga would need to be inside the NET top 30. For the road game in Spokane, Gonzaga would only need to finish inside the top 75. Those two games give SDSU a pair of potentially significant résumé opportunities during conference play.

Quad 2 could determine how strong the schedule becomes

Our conservative estimate currently projects nine Quad 2 games, and this group contains much of the uncertainty in SDSU’s schedule. Games involving programs such as UNLV, Colorado State, Boise State, Utah State, Oregon State and Washington State could move between quadrants depending on how those teams perform.

The road games are particularly important. Because an opponent only needs to finish inside the NET top 75 for a road game to become Quad 1, trips to programs like Boise State and Utah State have an easier path to Q1 status than those same opponents coming to Viejas Arena. If several Pac-12 teams outperform preseason expectations, SDSU’s eventual number of Quad 1 opportunities could rise.

The opposite is also possible. If projected quality opponents struggle, games currently projected as Quad 1 or Quad 2 could fall into a lower quadrant. That’s why six projected

Quad 1 games should be viewed as a conservative starting estimate — not a floor, ceiling or guarantee.

The middle of the schedule

The largest individual category in our estimate is Quad 3, with 10 projected games. That doesn’t necessarily mean all 10 will remain there. Several opponents could finish close enough to the NET cutoffs to move up or down throughout the season. A strong year from a team currently projected in Q3 could turn that matchup into a Q2 opportunity, while an underperforming opponent could move in the other direction.

The projected bottom of SDSU’s schedule is relatively limited, with only four projected Quad 4 games among the Aztecs’ guaranteed Division I opponents. Life Pacific, an NAIA program, is not included in the 29-game Division I quadrant projection. SDSU’s three exhibitions against Arizona, USC and Long Beach State also do not count toward the regular-season NCAA Tournament résumé.

The conservative preseason projection

For now, our estimate remains 6 projected Q1, 9 projected Q2, 10 projected Q3 and 4 projected Q4 games. That’s 15 projected Q1/Q2 opportunities across 29 guaranteed Division I games.

There are enough games sitting near projected quadrant boundaries that the final breakdown could look considerably different once actual NET rankings begin to develop. Players Era creates additional uncertainty and opportunity, while Pac-12 road games could rise into Quad 1 if those opponents perform well. Games currently projected in Quad 3 could become Quad 2, while others could move in the opposite direction.

So this shouldn’t be viewed as a prediction of what SDSU’s final team sheet will look like in March. It’s a conservative September estimate based on what we know today. What we can say is that SDSU has multiple high-end nonconference opportunities, two games against Gonzaga and a collection of conference road games that could become increasingly valuable depending on how the first season of the new Pac-12 unfolds.

The opportunities are there. Now the Aztecs have to win them.